Before the Iran war, the UAE produced about 3.4 million barrels per day (b/d), contributing approximately 12% of total OPEC output. However, disruptions caused by conflict—specifically the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—led to a staggering 44% slump in UAE production.

As tensions escalated with Iran, which has significantly affected oil production in the region, discussions about the UAE’s departure from OPEC intensified behind closed doors. By 2024, the UAE’s crude oil production averaged only 2.95 million b/d due to these challenges.

Currently, the UAE boasts a production capacity of around 4.85 million b/d and plans to increase this to 5 million b/d by 2027. This ambitious goal reflects its desire to assert greater independence in an evolving geopolitical landscape.

Key implications of this exit:

• The UAE’s departure is seen as a significant blow to OPEC’s influence in the oil market.
• This move may further fracture relations among remaining OPEC members.
• It could strengthen the UAE’s relationship with the United States as it seeks to balance its interests.

Dr. Ebtesam Al-Ketbi remarked, “The UAE is redefining its role from a producer within a bloc to a balancing producer that contributes to market stability through its ability to act.” Meanwhile, analysts like Will Wechsler noted that policymakers in the UAE are increasingly disillusioned with their membership in OPEC.

Landon Derentz highlighted that this decision represents a symbolic political blow to OPEC’s perceived influence. The unilateral nature of this decision illustrates how intra-Gulf disputes—especially regarding responses to the Iran war—could reshape dynamics in the Middle East.

The implications of these developments extend beyond mere numbers; they signal a transformative period for both the UAE and OPEC as they navigate an uncertain future in global energy markets.

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Since joining OPEC in 1967, the UAE remained a member even after its formation as a nation in 1971. Over the years, it has played a crucial role within the organization. However, recent criticisms of fellow Arab states for not adequately protecting it from Iranian threats have led to this departure.

On April 28, 2026, the UAE’s exit will take effect. Anwar Gargash, a prominent Emirati politician, expressed his disappointment with the Gulf Cooperation Council’s political and military support: “The Gulf Cooperation Council countries supported each other logistically, but politically and militarily, I think their position has been the weakest historically.”

OPEC members have faced challenges in shipping crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz due to Iranian threats. This strategic waterway is crucial; about a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes through it.

As tensions rise, Donald Trump has accused OPEC of inflating oil prices. The Brent crude oil price surged to $119.50 per barrel since the outbreak of hostilities in Iran—representing a 3.4% increase that has alarmed many nations.

Gargash also remarked on his surprise at the lack of action from the Gulf Cooperation Council regarding these issues: “I expect this weak stance from the Arab League and I am not surprised by it, but I haven’t expected it from the [Gulf] Cooperation Council and I am surprised by it.”

The implications of the UAE’s exit extend beyond just its relationship with OPEC; they resonate throughout the global energy market. As countries grapple with fluctuating oil prices and regional instability, this shift could redefine alliances and strategies among Gulf producers and their global partners.

The next few months will be critical as stakeholders assess how this exit will reshape both OPEC’s influence and broader energy dynamics worldwide.

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